Amphibians - such as this mating pair of toads of the genus Atelopus - are threatened by fungal infections. A new mathematical model helps predict the local consequences of a given outbreak (Photo credit: Margarita Lampo)

Amphibians – such as this mating pair of toads of the genus Atelopus – are threatened by fungal infections. A new mathematical model helps predict the local consequences of a given outbreak (Photo credit: Margarita Lampo)

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is a fungus that causes a deadly skin disease in frogs and other amphibians, and is one of the factors contributing to the global decline of amphibians.

A new mathematical model shows that the reproduction quotient – that is, the average number of new spores produced by an initial spore over its lifetime – is the best predictor of whether a given strain will cause local extinction. The finding could help conservation groups.

Original research paper published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B on May 6, 2014.

Names and affiliations of selected authors

Stilianos Louca, University of British Columbia, British Columbia