On May 12, 2014, two papers were released which indicated that the Thwaites glacier, a major component of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is already under collapse, possibly irreversibly.
The first paper, accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, was done by researchers from the University of California Irvine and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and was the subject of a NASA press conference held May 12, 2014. It uses satellite analysis and measurements of glacier flow to show that the grounding line – the point at which the end of the glacier starts to float – is in retreat, and that there is no mechanism that is likely to stop it before the entire ice sheet collapses.
The second paper was published in Science on May 12, 2014 by researchers from the University of Washington. It uses detailed topography maps, airborne radar and computer modelling to predict that the collapse of the Thwaites glacier could happen somewhere between 200 and 900 years from now. The loss of glaciers from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could eventually raise sea levels by between 1 and 3 metres.
Graham Cogley is professor emeritus of geography at Trent University and is an expert in glaciology who has read both papers and can answer media inquiries about them.
