{"id":4997,"date":"2016-11-04T11:46:55","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T15:46:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/?p=4997"},"modified":"2016-11-04T11:46:55","modified_gmt":"2016-11-04T15:46:55","slug":"determining-waiting-time-for-emergence-of-infectious-disease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/determining-waiting-time-for-emergence-of-infectious-disease\/","title":{"rendered":"Determining waiting time for emergence of infectious disease"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicting emergence or re-emergence of infectious disease\u2014such as MERS-coronavirus, measles, or pertussis\u2014can be a challenge, since the outbreaks don&#8217;t happen as soon as theoretically possible. There can be a substantial waiting time between suitable conditions for an outbreak and the outbreak itself. A team of scientists at the University of Georgia has derived and tested a formula for this waiting time, which they say can be described by two parameters: rate of introduction of infection and the rate of change of the basic reproductive ratio.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Christopher J. Dibble, Eamon B. O&#8217;Dea, Andrew W. Park, John M. Drake<\/p>\n<p><strong>Corresponding author:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dr Chris Dibble, University of Georgia Odum School of Ecology, <span class=\"nlm-addr-line\">140 East Green Street, Athens, GA 30602-2202<\/span>, <span class=\"nlm-country\">USA<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org\/content\/13\/123\/20160540\" target=\"_blank\">Original paper<\/a> published in\u00a0<strong><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Journal of the Royal Society Interface <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">on October 19, 2016.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predicting emergence or re-emergence of infectious disease\u2014such as MERS-coronavirus, measles, or pertussis\u2014can be a challenge, since the outbreaks don&#8217;t happen as soon as theoretically possible. There can be a substantial waiting time between suitable conditions for an outbreak and the outbreak itself. A team of scientists at the University of Georgia has derived and tested [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2660,2661],"class_list":["post-4997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-paper-of-interest","tag-early-warning-systems","tag-emerging-infectious-disease"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4DqbN-1iB","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4997"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4997\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4998,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4997\/revisions\/4998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}