{"id":2442,"date":"2014-07-18T18:26:17","date_gmt":"2014-07-18T23:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/?p=2442"},"modified":"2014-07-18T18:26:17","modified_gmt":"2014-07-18T23:26:17","slug":"les-analystes-du-renseignement-manquent-parfois-de-confiance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/les-analystes-du-renseignement-manquent-parfois-de-confiance\/","title":{"rendered":"Les analystes du renseignement manquent parfois de confiance<img src=\"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/canada_flag_icon_small.gif\">"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/CCSM-FRE-Centred.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1073\" src=\"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/CCSM-FRE-Centred.png\" alt=\"CCSM-FRE-Centred\" width=\"232\" height=\"112\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Les analystes du renseignement du Bureau du conseil priv\u00e9 ont tendance \u00e0 manquer de confiance en leur pr\u00e9vision r\u00e9v\u00e8le une nouvelle \u00e9tude. Les auteurs de l\u2019\u00e9tude ont analys\u00e9 plus de 1 500 pr\u00e9visions d\u2019analyse strat\u00e9gique faites par des analystes qui conseillent les politiques du gouvernement canadien. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Ce genre d\u2019analyse conclut habituellement que les analystes ont trop confiance en leurs pr\u00e9dictions, mais les analystes du BCP ont montr\u00e9 la tendance inverse, malgr\u00e9 le fait que leurs pr\u00e9dictions \u00e9taient de bonne qualit\u00e9. Les auteurs montrent dans l\u2019\u00e9tude que des mesures peuvent \u00eatre prises pour compenser ce manque de confiance sans changer de mani\u00e8re fondamentale la mani\u00e8re de faire des analystes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Pour lire l\u2019article original publi\u00e9 dans\u00a0<em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.A.)<span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/em>le\u00a0<strong>14 juillet\u00a0<\/strong><strong>2014<\/strong>,\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/early\/2014\/07\/10\/1406138111\" target=\"_blank\">cliquez\u00a0ici<\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span><em><strong>Auteur \u00e0 contacter pour plus d\u2019informations<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #000000;\">David R. Mandel, Recherche &amp; d\u00e9veloppement pour la d\u00e9fense Canada, Ontario<\/span><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les analystes du renseignement du Bureau du conseil priv\u00e9 ont tendance \u00e0 manquer de confiance en leur pr\u00e9vision r\u00e9v\u00e8le une nouvelle \u00e9tude. Les auteurs de l\u2019\u00e9tude ont analys\u00e9 plus de 1 500 pr\u00e9visions d\u2019analyse strat\u00e9gique faites par des analystes qui conseillent les politiques du gouvernement canadien. Ce genre d\u2019analyse conclut habituellement que les analystes ont [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[531],"tags":[1971,1973,846,1972,1511],"class_list":["post-2442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-paper-of-interest-fr","tag-defense","tag-intelligence-fr","tag-ontario-fr","tag-previsions-de-renseignement","tag-psychologie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4DqbN-Do","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2442"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2442\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2444,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2442\/revisions\/2444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/sciencemediacentre.ca\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}