Images show before (lower) and after (upper, one day later) onset of dynamic ice breakup in the central Mackenzie delta's middle channel. (Credit: Lance Lesack, via SFU Media Relations)

Images show before (lower) and after (upper, one day later) onset of dynamic ice breakup in the central Mackenzie delta’s middle channel. (Credit: Lance Lesack, via SFU Media Relations)

As the climate warms, scientists predict more precipitation, higher river flows and earlier ice breakup in the spring. But even though ice is breaking up earlier on Canada’s longest river – the Mackenzie – its total discharge has not changed. A new analysis shows that the cause may instead be reduced snow accumulation in the Mackenzie delta each winter; without as much snow to reflect sunlight, the ice is easier to break up in spring. If the same phenomenon applies to sea ice, it could explain why sea ice is disappearing so much faster than predicted.

Original research paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters on March 10, 2014.

Names and affiliations of selected authors

Lance Lesack, Simon Fraser University