Predicting emergence or re-emergence of infectious disease—such as MERS-coronavirus, measles, or pertussis—can be a challenge, since the outbreaks don’t happen as soon as theoretically possible. There can be a substantial waiting time between suitable conditions for an outbreak and the outbreak itself. A team of scientists at the University of Georgia has derived and tested a formula for this waiting time, which they say can be described by two parameters: rate of introduction of infection and the rate of change of the basic reproductive ratio.
Authors:
Christopher J. Dibble, Eamon B. O’Dea, Andrew W. Park, John M. Drake
Corresponding author:
Dr Chris Dibble, University of Georgia Odum School of Ecology, 140 East Green Street, Athens, GA 30602-2202, USA
Original paper published in Journal of the Royal Society Interface on October 19, 2016.
